St. Louis Home Prices Are Up Nearly 7% — Even With Mortgage Rates Above 7%

If mortgage rates are above 7%, shouldn't home prices be falling?

That's what many buyers have been waiting for.

The theory makes sense: Higher mortgage rates make homes less affordable. That reduces buyer demand. Lower demand should cause home prices to fall.

But the latest numbers from the St. Louis real estate market tell a different story.

According to September 2026 market data, the median sold price in the St. Louis metro reached approximately $305,000, compared with $285,825 in September 2025.

That's an increase of approximately 6.7% year over year.

Meanwhile, the number of homes sold barely changed.

Approximately 2,973 homes sold in September 2026, compared with 3,002 during September 2025—a decline of less than 1%.

So despite significantly higher mortgage rates, St. Louis home prices haven't crashed.

In fact, the median sale price is higher than it was a year ago.

September 2026 St. Louis Housing Market

Here's what the latest numbers show:

Median Sold Price: $305,000
September 2025: $285,825
Year-Over-Year Change: +6.71%

Median List Price: $299,900
September 2025: $291,000
Year-Over-Year Change: +3.06%

Homes Sold: 2,973
September 2025: 3,002
Year-Over-Year Change: -0.97%

There's an important caveat whenever we talk about median prices.

A 6.7% increase in the median sale price does not mean every St. Louis homeowner's property increased exactly 6.7% in value.

The types, locations and price ranges of homes sold during a particular month can influence the median.

But the numbers still tell us something important:

Higher mortgage rates have not resulted in the major collapse in St. Louis home prices that some buyers have been expecting.

Why Haven't St. Louis Home Prices Crashed?

It largely comes down to supply and demand.

Mortgage rates certainly affect demand.

But they're only one side of the equation.

You also have to look at how many homes are available for buyers to purchase.

St. Louis continues to deal with limited housing inventory in many communities and price ranges.

And there's another unusual factor affecting today's housing market:

Millions of homeowners have extremely low mortgage rates.

Someone who purchased or refinanced several years ago may have a mortgage rate in the 2%, 3% or 4% range.

Selling that house could mean giving up that mortgage and purchasing another home at today's much higher rate.

For some homeowners, that doesn't make financial sense.

So they don't sell.

That means fewer homes come onto the market.

And when supply remains limited, prices don't necessarily fall simply because mortgage rates rise.

The "I'm Waiting for the Crash" Strategy Hasn't Worked Yet

We've heard this from buyers for several years:

"I'm going to wait until home prices crash."

The problem is that waiting has a cost too.

Suppose someone decided not to purchase because they expected a major correction.

If prices continued increasing while they waited, the house they wanted may now cost more.

At the same time, mortgage rates may also be higher.

That doesn't mean buying is always the right decision.

Sometimes waiting absolutely makes sense.

Your finances, job stability, savings, monthly payment and how long you plan to own the home all matter.

But there's an important distinction between:

"I'm not financially ready to buy."

and

"I'm waiting because I'm certain prices are going to crash."

Nobody knows exactly where home prices or mortgage rates will go next.

Making a major financial decision based entirely on predicting the market can be risky.

Higher Rates Don't Mean Buyers Have No Advantages

There's another side of today's market that doesn't always show up in the headlines.

While home prices haven't collapsed, buyers in many situations have more negotiating power than they did during the extreme seller's market a few years ago.

Think back to 2020–2022.

Buyers in many parts of the St. Louis metro were competing against multiple offers.

Some were offering tens of thousands of dollars over asking price.

Inspection contingencies were being waived.

Seller concessions were difficult to obtain.

Buyers sometimes had to make decisions almost immediately after a property hit the market.

Today's market can look very different.

Depending on the property and neighborhood, buyers may have opportunities to negotiate:

• Purchase price

• Seller-paid closing costs

• Inspection repairs

• Home warranties

• Closing timelines

• Temporary mortgage-rate buydowns

• Permanent rate buydowns

• Other seller concessions

So while financing a home may be more expensive, buyers can potentially negotiate parts of the transaction that were almost impossible to negotiate several years ago.

New Construction Is Another Option Worth Watching

Higher mortgage rates have also made new construction particularly interesting.

Builders operate differently from individual homeowners.

A homeowner may simply decide not to sell if they don't receive the price they want.

Builders don't have that luxury forever.

They have land, construction loans, employees, contractors and inventory.

They need to sell homes so they can continue building.

That's why buyers may see builders offering significant incentives, including:

• Mortgage-rate buydowns

• Closing-cost assistance

• Price reductions

• Design upgrades

• Appliance packages

• Lot incentives

In some cases, the effective financing available through a builder's preferred lender can make the monthly payment on a new-construction home surprisingly competitive with a resale property.

That's why buyers should compare the entire transaction, not simply the asking price.

What About Sellers?

The latest St. Louis numbers also contain an important message for homeowners considering selling.

Higher mortgage rates haven't eliminated buyers.

Nearly 3,000 homes still sold across the metro during September.

However, that doesn't mean sellers can price their homes however they want.

Today's buyers are much more payment-conscious.

A buyer looking at a $300,000 house today is dealing with a very different monthly payment than someone purchasing that same house with a 3% mortgage.

That means pricing and condition matter.

Homes that are updated, positioned correctly and priced appropriately can still attract strong interest.

Homes that are overpriced may sit.

And once a property accumulates significant days on market, buyers often begin wondering what's wrong with it.

The strategy that worked during the extreme seller's market isn't necessarily the strategy that works today.

Real Estate Is Local

This may be the most important takeaway.

National housing headlines can be misleading when you're trying to make a decision about real estate in St. Louis.

You may read:

"Home prices are falling."

But where?

Florida?

Texas?

Arizona?

California?

What's happening in another state doesn't necessarily tell you what's happening in Missouri.

And even saying "the St. Louis market" can be too broad.

The market in Fenton can behave differently from the market in Chesterfield.

Jefferson County can behave differently from St. Charles County.

A $200,000 starter home can experience completely different demand than a $900,000 luxury home.

Real estate isn't just local.

It's hyperlocal.

Should You Buy a House Right Now?

There's no universal answer.

The better question is:

Does buying make sense for you right now?

Look at your monthly payment.

Look at your income.

Look at your savings.

Look at how long you expect to live in the property.

Look at the available inventory.

Look at what sellers are willing to negotiate.

And compare all of that with the cost of continuing to rent.

If the numbers make sense, buying can make sense.

If they don't, waiting can make sense too.

But waiting solely because someone on social media says the housing market is about to crash isn't much of a strategy.

What Happens Next in the St. Louis Housing Market?

Mortgage rates will be one of the biggest variables to watch heading into the remainder of 2026.

If rates remain elevated, affordability will continue putting pressure on buyers.

If rates decline, more buyers could return to the market.

But lower rates could also increase competition for the limited number of homes available.

That's the strange reality of today's housing market.

Lower mortgage rates don't automatically mean cheaper houses.

If rates fall and buyer demand increases faster than housing inventory, home prices could face additional upward pressure.

That's why trying to perfectly time both home prices and mortgage rates is incredibly difficult.

The Bottom Line

September's numbers offer an important reminder about the St. Louis housing market.

Mortgage rates may be high.

Affordability may be challenging.

The market may feel slower than it did several years ago.

But that doesn't automatically mean home prices are falling.

With the September median sale price around $305,000—approximately 6.7% higher than a year earlier—St. Louis continues to show resilience despite the higher-rate environment.

For buyers, today's market may offer negotiating opportunities that didn't exist several years ago.

For sellers, buyers are still purchasing homes—but pricing and strategy matter more.

And for everyone considering making a move:

Don't make a St. Louis real estate decision based solely on a national headline.

Find out what's actually happening in your neighborhood and price range.

At 1st Class Real Estate STL, our agents help buyers and sellers understand the numbers, evaluate their options and build a strategy around today's market—not yesterday's.

Thinking about buying or selling in the St. Louis metro?

Reach out to 1st Class Real Estate STL and let one of our local real estate professionals show you what's actually happening in your market.

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